Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 49.358018 58.013816 67.477429 78.557889 91.139438 104.944525 121.200115
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 36.465388 48.012266 61.835925 79.452522 101.138651 126.785588 159.218059
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 27.673736 39.942404 55.729739 77.212202 105.316516 140.435409 187.181368
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.606805 35.278087 52.599878 77.470989 111.636118 156.219224 217.963843
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 19.168532 32.070821 50.673754 78.654399 118.719051 172.931054 250.510227
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.797506 26.659424 44.745679 73.283155 115.900434 175.694752 264.074551
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.053621 24.987615 44.026242 75.233917 123.402907 192.911579 298.228654
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.072720 22.563884 41.762563 74.462653 126.616422 203.979167 324.057654
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.443632 22.368897 43.031627 79.291151 138.598067 228.438964 370.450271
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.439754 19.312605 39.074750 75.121427 136.015868 230.754514 383.985473
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.744632 18.641059 39.175759 77.729063 144.430135 250.246928 424.272697
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.489968 18.810947 40.798962 83.076254 157.661179 277.874727 478.256561
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.865670 18.238679 41.216934 86.782429 169.206136 304.762489 534.604287
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.949493 16.875943 39.981427 87.439395 175.744992 324.289884 580.968600
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.889997 14.934360 37.278967 84.978226 176.489530 334.200526 612.269183
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.230523 13.804686 36.079623 85.255643 182.120062 352.545017 658.212279
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.739975 12.991324 35.434096 86.538403 189.649101 374.488533 711.142360
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.880334 10.923909 31.599777 80.712733 183.071086 371.209022 720.935621
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.601701 10.470315 31.491334 82.829117 192.101499 396.209405 780.610224
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.213988 9.566657 30.126074 81.992453 195.116447 410.370786 821.866989
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.142491 9.683791 31.381055 87.228650 210.874677 448.826740 907.861956
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.691425 8.348140 28.584631 82.707094 205.976548 448.296937 923.756550
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.563600 8.149787 28.857144 85.535110 216.830637 478.205325 996.217479